Bloomberg: Bitcoin Breaks Its Decade-Long Correlation as U.S. Stocks Climb While BTC Declines
Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market are officially moving in opposite directions for the first time in over ten years, according to new data highlighted by Bloomberg. While the S&P 500 has gained 16 percent in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen by 3 percent — a divergence not seen since 2014.
The decoupling reflects a major shift in investor behavior, weakening ETF inflows, and the growing appeal of traditional safe-haven assets.
U.S. Equities Rally as Bitcoin Struggles
The S&P 500’s strong 2025 performance has been fueled by robust megacap earnings, institutional enthusiasm for AI-linked companies, and stable inflows into equity index funds. Equities remain supported by low volatility and broad macro optimism.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been unable to sustain upward momentum. New highs last only briefly before rapid corrections erase gains, signaling fading speculative interest and reduced liquidity support.
Capital Rotates Into Precious Metals Instead of BTC
Historically, risk-off environments pushed capital into Bitcoin as an alternative macro hedge. This year, however, that flow has shifted decisively toward metals.
Market trends indicate:
• rising demand for gold and other commodities
• significantly higher inflows into metals ETFs
• reduced appetite for Bitcoin as a defensive asset
For now, the “digital gold” narrative appears to be losing ground to actual gold.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow Down
Bitcoin spot ETFs played a massive role in BTC’s early-year gains, but inflows have cooled sharply. This slowdown reflects a mix of macro caution and shifting investor priorities.
Drivers include:
• repeated failed BTC breakouts
• competition from high-yield and commodity markets
• reduced risk appetite among advisors and institutional allocators
• uncertainty surrounding global liquidity
With ETF demand weakening, Bitcoin loses one of its strongest recent catalysts.
First Major Decoupling Since 2014
The last time Bitcoin diverged so sharply from equities was in 2014, back when institutional involvement was minimal. Today’s divergence is more complex, shaped by:
• ETF flow dynamics
• macro liquidity cycles
• speculative capital moving to metals and AI equities
• changes in Bitcoin’s perceived risk profile
This suggests Bitcoin’s market behavior is evolving, potentially entering a new phase where correlations with traditional assets become less predictable.
BTCUSA Comment
Bitcoin’s negative performance during an equity rally marks a key narrative shift for the asset. Rather than acting as a high-beta extension of tech stocks, BTC is now responding more directly to liquidity flows, ETF demand, and competition from commodities.
If speculative appetite returns or ETF inflows revive, Bitcoin could re-correlate with equities. For now, it is navigating one of its most independent market phases in a decade. BTCUSA will continue tracking ETF flows, metals performance, and macro liquidity to assess where this divergence leads next.
