Fed rate cuts no longer guarantee Bitcoin upside
According to a new analysis from 10x Research, Bitcoin’s reaction to the latest Federal Reserve rate cut shows a major shift in market dynamics. The expected bullish impulse did not materialize, and the initial rally faded quickly.
Jerome Powell’s mixed messaging during the press conference added further uncertainty, delivering neutral, hawkish, and dovish signals simultaneously.
The Fed remains internally divided, and the current base case is a pause rather than an aggressive easing cycle. As a result, Bitcoin no longer responds to rate cuts with automatic upside momentum, breaking from patterns observed in previous cycles.
Why Bitcoin lost momentum despite macro easing
10x Research highlights that today’s market depends far more on institutional flows than retail activity. Institutions tend to reduce risk into year-end, resulting in weaker liquidity and less appetite for large directional bets.
Without new capital entering the market, Bitcoin lacks the support needed for sustained upward moves. This structural dependence on institutional liquidity has made macro catalysts far less predictable.
ETF flows slow sharply in 2025
One of the most significant changes is weakening demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows in 2025 are much lower than the record levels seen the year before.
Additionally:
• institutional buying began slowing in autumn
• December recorded the first net on-chain outflows since August 2023
• selling pressure increased as liquidity rotated out of crypto
The data indicates that real capital flows, not general liquidity narratives, are driving market direction. Without strong inflows, Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum.
Technical breakdown: Bitcoin loses its long-term channel
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has fallen out of the ascending channel it has held since 2023.
The price has repeatedly failed to reclaim this structure, signaling a loss of impulse.
The market now appears to be in a consolidation phase with elevated risk of further sideways action or deeper retracements. This environment typically precedes multi-week cooling periods.
Cycle insights: the four-year pattern still holds, but drivers have changed
10x Research suggests the four-year Bitcoin cycle remains intact but is now more influenced by political dynamics than by the halving.
Historically, Bitcoin peaks tend to occur in Q4, followed by a cooling period. Current price action aligns with this pattern, reinforcing the view that the market may have entered a slower phase.
Altcoins struggle under structural pressures
Large-scale token unlocks continue to exert downward pressure on altcoins.
Institutions remain focused on Bitcoin and partially Ethereum, avoiding small-cap tokens with higher risk.
Meanwhile, traditional finance capital is flowing into crypto-related equities and IPOs, effectively replacing the classic altseason dynamic.
Among altcoins, 10x Research highlights BNB as one of the few ecosystem plays showing relative strength and practical utility.
BTCUSA Insight
The disconnect between rate cuts and Bitcoin performance signals an important structural shift. Liquidity alone is no longer enough to move the market. Institutional participation has become the dominant force, and when that participation slows, macro catalysts lose power.
The ETF slowdown reinforces this reality: sustainable upside requires continuous inflows, not temporary sentiment boosts.
BTCUSA Outlook
We expect Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation zone until institutional flows reaccelerate. The technical breakdown of the long-term channel suggests more time is needed before impulse returns.
Key factors to monitor include ETF activity, year-start institutional positioning, and macro guidance from the Fed.
Altcoins will likely remain under pressure unless liquidity conditions improve. BNB may continue to outperform due to ecosystem strength and real demand.
