A historically poor fourth quarter for crypto
The final quarter of 2025 delivered an unusually weak performance for the crypto market, breaking with the seasonal trend of strong year-end rallies.
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin recorded a return of -23.07% in Q4 2025. This result stands far below its historical Q4 average return of 77.07% and the median return of 47.73%, underscoring the scale of the divergence from long-term norms.
Bitcoin logs second-worst Q4 on record
The latest decline marks Bitcoin’s second-worst fourth-quarter performance since inception, surpassed only by Q4 2018, when BTC fell 42.16% during the depths of the previous bear market.
Such a sharp deviation from the typical year-end rally pattern has heightened uncertainty among market participants who traditionally view Q4 as a period of recovery or breakout momentum.
Ethereum follows with deep losses
Ethereum also closed the quarter with heavy losses. ETH declined 28.28% in Q4 2025, placing the period as the fourth-worst Q4 in Ethereum’s trading history.
While Ethereum has historically exhibited higher volatility than Bitcoin, the magnitude of the decline still represents a notable breakdown of seasonal expectations.
What the data suggests
The underperformance of both Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4 2025 suggests that broader market forces overpowered typical cyclical behavior. Factors such as macroeconomic tightening, ETF flow volatility, and fading speculative momentum likely contributed to the breakdown of historical patterns.
Rather than functioning as a launchpad for the next growth phase, Q4 instead became a stress test for market structure and investor conviction.
BTCUSA outlook
The historically weak Q4 performance serves as a reminder that seasonal patterns are not guarantees. While past data often shapes expectations, the second-worst Q4 in Bitcoin’s history and Ethereum’s fourth-worst close highlight the evolving nature of crypto market cycles.
As 2026 begins, traders and investors may need to recalibrate assumptions built on prior bull-market playbooks and focus more closely on macro signals, liquidity trends, and structural demand.
