Introduction
In a sobering assessment for cryptocurrency enthusiasts, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has forecasted that Bitcoin will likely close the year 2025 below $84,000.
With over 25 years of experience in futures trading, McGlone’s analysis underscores growing concerns about risk assets as global markets grapple with post-inflation deflationary pressures.
This prediction comes at a pivotal moment, with Bitcoin currently trading near $91,700 amid anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision.
McGlone’s Bearish Outlook
McGlone’s forecast highlights the $94,000 to $84,000 range as a critical “do-or-die” zone for Bitcoin.
He argues that breaching below $84,000 is more probable than surpassing $94,000 by year-end, potentially indicating a shift toward risk-off sentiment across equities and commodities.
This view aligns with his recent commentary, where he positions Bitcoin as a leading indicator for an impending recession. Drawing parallels to historical downturns such as the 1999 tech bubble, McGlone emphasizes mean-reversion tendencies that could drag the asset lower.
Potential Downside Scenarios
Beyond the $84,000 threshold, McGlone envisions realistic plunges to $50,000 amid weakening market sentiment, calculated as the average of Bitcoin’s yearly highs from 2021–2023 and its 2024 lows around $50,100.
In a severe bear-case scenario, he has not ruled out a return to $10,000, triggered by macroeconomic shocks like a sharp S&P 500 decline to 4,000 or below.
These levels reflect Bitcoin’s vulnerability to broader economic cycles, contrasting its underperformance against safe-haven assets like gold throughout 2025.
Current Market Context
Bitcoin’s path to year-end remains volatile, having peaked at $126,210 in October before sliding nearly 30% in recent months.
The cryptocurrency has rebounded modestly to around $91,700 as of December 8, buoyed by 85% odds of a Federal Reserve quarter-point rate cut.
However, low open interest in Bitcoin futures — the lowest of the year — signals reduced leverage and potential for abrupt moves. On-chain data shows rising realized losses, pointing to capitulation risks if support at $90,000 falters.
Broader Implications for Crypto and Investors
McGlone’s warning extends beyond Bitcoin, suggesting deflationary headwinds could pressure the entire crypto ecosystem. While institutional adoption, such as MicroStrategy’s recent addition of 10,624 BTC to its holdings, offers some bullish counterbalance, the strategist remains steadfastly optimistic on gold over digital assets. For investors, this forecast advocates caution: enhanced risk management, diversified portfolios, and vigilance around Fed signals could mitigate downside exposure in the final weeks of 2025.
Conclusion
As the year draws to a close, Mike McGlone’s prognosis paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin, with sub-$84,000 levels looming as a harbinger of wider market turbulence. While short-term rebounds remain possible, the overarching narrative leans bearish, urging traders to prepare for heightened uncertainty.
