The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with the possibility of the United States approving a Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund). This potential move has sparked a variety of predictions concerning Bitcoin’s future price.
Analysts and experts are weighing in, providing insights that range from cautious optimism to exuberant bullish.
An ETF Would Open the Gates to Institutional Capital
According to Bloomberg, the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF being greenlit this year stands at a promising 90%. This news has fueled speculation about the impact such an approval would have on Bitcoin’s value.
Primarily, approving a spot Bitcoin ETF could mark a pivotal shift in institutional engagement with cryptocurrency. This would open a regulated path for US companies into the crypto market and draw major trading firms. Subsequently enhancing market liquidity and dynamics.
“In the mid-term, [Bitcoin ETFs] should provide a frictionless on-ramp for institutions to add Bitcoin to their books in a way that’s both regulatory friendly and compliant with various fund structures,” Mati Greenspan, CEO of Quantum Economics, told BeInCrypto.
Read more: Full List of Bitcoin ETFs Waiting Approval in January 2024 and Deadlines
Introducing a spot Bitcoin ETF is also expected to shake up the operations of cryptocurrency exchanges. Analysts like Nate Geraci of ETF Store and Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas pointed out an ETF could lead to more competitive trading costs. Therefore, potentially transforming the revenue models and operations of traditional crypto exchanges.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein added another dimension to this conversation. He suggested the ETF’s approval could unlock around $30 trillion in advised wealth for Bitcoin. This move could significantly broaden the investor base, offering new opportunities for those previously unable to invest in Bitcoin.
“There is a lot of optimism in the market. A lot of investors are adding Bitcoin to their portfolios. When we look ahead to the hopeful approval, it is going to unlock the opportunity to a part of the investment community that, for better or worse, but I would say for worse, has unfortunately been locked out of the opportunity to participate in having Bitcoin exposure in their portfolios,” Sonnenshein added.
BTC Price Prediction Ahead of Bitcoin ETF Decision
Regarding price forecasts, a range of predictions have been put forth. On the conservative end, Bitcoin’s price is expected to hover between $42,000 and $100,000 upon ETF approval. However, a more bullish perspective suggests a potential surge to $160,000 or even $1,000,000, fueled by institutional influx and supply factors.
For instance, Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, forecasted a significant increase in Bitcoin’s value, suggesting it could reach $100,000. He believes this surge is possible even before the introduction of an ETF and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. Back emphasized the substantial impact an ETF could have on Bitcoin’s value, highlighting its potential influence on its market dynamics.
Likewise, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin would surpass $160,000 based on several factors. These include the anticipated increase in demand for Bitcoin stemming from various ETFs, the forthcoming Bitcoin halving event, and a potential rise in broader stock markets driven by cuts in interest rates.
“We argue that Bitcoin and crypto markets could have a positive year in 2024 mostly amid the effects from: 1. The market valuation cycle, 2. Network activity, 3. The Bitcoin halving, 4. The macroeconomic perspective, 5. Bitcoin spot ETF approval and 6. Growing stablecoin liquidity,” analysts at CryptoQuant affirmed.
Read more: How To Prepare for a Bitcoin ETF: A Step-by-Step Approach
On the other hand, Anthony Scaramucci, a notable figure in the crypto space, anticipated a price rise to $330,000.
“Think of the magnitude of that. If there’s a hundred billion dollars that flows into Bitcoin, the guys at Fidelity think that could have an 11 times factor in terms of valuation, so you could see Bitcoin go from a $600 billion asset to a $6 trillion asset,” Scaramucci said.
Meanwhile, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, predicted a dramatic rise in Bitcoin’s value, potentially reaching $1 million. Mow pointed to the limited availability of BTC on exchanges, contrasted with a surge of institutional money. He emphasizes that this influx of capital could cause a significant and rapid increase in Bitcoin’s value.
Drawing on past trends, such as the 2017 surge where Bitcoin’s value increased 20-fold in just nine months, Mow suggested that the impact of ETF approvals could lead to an even quicker and more substantial rise, given the expected billions of dollars that would pour into the market.
Despite the excitement, remembering that these predictions are speculative and hinge on various factors, including regulatory decisions and market dynamics, is crucial. Given the notorious volatility of the cryptocurrency market, investors must approach these developments with caution and thorough research.