Coinbase Institutional: Bitcoin May Have Found Short-Term Bottom, Cycle Could Extend to 2026
According to Coinbase Institutional’s latest monthly outlook, Bitcoin may have already found its short-term bottom following a significant leverage clearing event on October 10, which flushed out overleveraged positions across the crypto market.
The report suggests that the post-liquidation environment has created healthier market conditions, reducing systemic risk and positioning Bitcoin for a more stable recovery phase.
Leverage Wipeout Signals Market Reset
Coinbase analysts noted that excessive leverage built up during September and early October led to widespread liquidations that removed speculative excess from the market. With this reset, Bitcoin’s downside pressure has likely eased, creating the foundation for a potential rebound.
The firm’s research cites options market data showing an implied price distribution between $90,000 and $160,000 over the next 3–6 months, indicating that institutional sentiment remains bullish despite short-term volatility.
Macro Factors Supporting Medium-Term Growth
Beyond short-term positioning, Coinbase Institutional outlines several medium-term catalysts that could fuel further upside:
• Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated in 2025–2026 may reignite liquidity inflows into risk assets.
• Easing global liquidity conditions could attract renewed institutional and retail participation.
• Regulatory clarity in key markets is expected to bolster investor confidence and increase fund inflows.
Together, these factors suggest that Bitcoin’s current market cycle, which began after the 2022 bear market, could extend through 2026, defying traditional four-year cycle expectations.
Institutional Confidence Remains High
The report highlights that large capital allocators continue to accumulate BTC through ETFs, custodial funds, and OTC desks. This steady institutional demand, combined with reduced speculative leverage, strengthens the case for a sustained bullish structure heading into the next year.
While short-term volatility is expected, the broader setup points to structural growth, the report concludes, emphasizing that Bitcoin remains one of the most resilient macro assets in the digital economy.
Outlook: A Controlled and Extended Cycle
Coinbase’s outlook paints a picture of a maturing crypto market — one where macro conditions, policy shifts, and institutional inflows work in tandem to sustain momentum. If liquidity trends continue and regulatory developments progress as expected, Bitcoin’s current cycle could evolve into one of the longest and most orderly bull markets in its history.
For investors, this consolidation phase may represent not a pause but the beginning of the next expansion leg.
