CryptoQuant: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Enter One of the Deepest Loss Zones of 2025
According to new data from CryptoQuant, short-term Bitcoin holders are currently experiencing one of the most severe drawdowns of the year. The average entry price of this cohort now sits approximately 10 percent above the current BTC market price, meaning the group is collectively holding at a significant unrealized loss.
This level of stress among short-term participants is rare in 2025 and indicates that the latest correction phase has reached a critical depth.
Why the Short-Term Holder Realized Price Matters
Short-term holders (STHs) — typically defined as wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days — are a sensitive group that often reacts strongly to market volatility. Their realized price represents the average cost basis of their recent purchases.
When BTC trades below this threshold, STHs move into loss territory.
A decline of around 10 percent below realized price has historically aligned with:
• capitulation-like behavior
• exhaustion of selling pressure
• formation of local or macro bottoms
• volatility spikes before major trend reversals
The 2025 drawdown now matches these historically important zones.
Late-Stage Correction Dynamics
CryptoQuant notes that deep STH losses are often observed in the late stages of a correction.
The typical pattern includes:
• aggressive selling from weak hands
• market liquidity thinness
• forced distribution from speculative buyers
• accumulation by larger, more patient holders
Once the weakest cohort is flushed out, price tends to stabilize as long-term holders and institutions absorb supply.
If BTC follows previous cycles, the current structure could indicate the market is approaching its reversal window.
Macro Context: Liquidity, ETFs, and Derivatives
The severity of STH losses is also a reflection of broader market conditions:
• declining liquidity in recent weeks
• reduced ETF inflows
• increased derivatives-driven volatility
• macro uncertainty influencing risk appetite
Despite these headwinds, long-term holder supply remains near record highs — a constructive sign for medium-term recovery.
BTCUSA Comment
The short-term holder capitulation zone has historically been one of the most reliable cyclical indicators for Bitcoin.
A -10 percent deviation from realized price is significant and often precedes a shift in market structure.
While this does not guarantee an immediate rally, it strongly suggests that the correction is maturing and may be transitioning toward its later phase, especially if spot demand reaccelerates.
BTCUSA Outlook
We expect the following dynamics in the coming weeks:
• heightened volatility as the market searches for a bottom
• potential accumulation from strategic investors
• stabilization if BTC reclaims the STH realized price level
• renewed momentum should liquidity conditions improve
If historical patterns hold, the current deep-loss zone for short-term holders may become a defining setup for Bitcoin’s next upward leg.
