Bitwise CIO presents a valuation model pointing to a $1.3M Bitcoin by 2035
A new long-term valuation model from the CIO of Bitwise suggests that Bitcoin reaching $1,300,000 per coin by 2035 may actually be a conservative scenario.
According to the model, Bitcoin’s price trajectory becomes extremely asymmetric once its market share relative to gold continues to expand.
Bitcoin aims for 25% of gold’s market value
The core assumption of the model is straightforward: Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows from today’s ~9% of gold’s total value to 25%.
Under this scenario alone, BTC would surpass the $1 million mark without requiring extreme adoption forecasts or unrealistic capital inflows.
The CIO notes that Bitcoin has already proven it can grow against traditional stores of value even in macro periods of tightening liquidity and rising real yields.
Gold’s growing market strengthens Bitcoin’s potential upside
Another key component rarely discussed in mainstream forecasts is that the gold market itself continues to grow.
This means Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) increases naturally over time. Unlike models that freeze gold’s market size, Bitwise’s approach acknowledges that:
• gold demand is rising globally
• institutional participation in gold derivatives remains strong
• geopolitical tension boosts interest in store-of-value assets
As gold expands, Bitcoin’s potential upside expands with it — even if BTC only captures a portion of that growth.
Why $1.3M may be the lower bound, not an aggressive target
The CIO argues that if Bitcoin achieves even modest progress toward becoming a global digital store of value, the $1.3M estimate represents more of a minimum threshold rather than a top-end projection.
Factors supporting this view include:
• accelerating institutional adoption
• Bitcoin ETFs shifting long-term supply dynamics
• increasing preference for digital over physical assets
• structural liquidity cycles favoring programmable stores of value
• demographic shifts toward younger investors comfortable with crypto
This creates a scenario in which $1.3M BTC is merely the baseline, not the bullish case.
Macro Insight: Store-of-value competition intensifies
Bitcoin’s competition with gold is evolving into a broader macro narrative: the digitization of global wealth reserves.
As geopolitical uncertainty, debt expansion and inflation persistence continue shaping financial markets, investors increasingly split between traditional hard assets (gold) and programmable hard assets (Bitcoin).
Bitcoin’s portability, transparency and limited supply give it advantages that gold cannot replicate.
If the world moves toward digital settlement rails and tokenized wealth instruments, Bitcoin’s structural position strengthens significantly.
BTCUSA Outlook
From our perspective, a 2035 Bitcoin valuation anchored to gold’s market share is one of the most grounded long-term frameworks available.
If Bitcoin reaches 25% of gold’s market value, the math leads directly toward the $1M+ range — and that assumes no new global drivers emerge.
Our outlook supports the premise that:
• institutional adoption will accelerate
• the ETF supply shock will deepen
• macro cycles will amplify Bitcoin’s asymmetric returns
In this context, the $1.3M target indeed appears conservative, and the realistic long-term range may extend meaningfully higher depending on global monetary conditions.
