Crypto Market to Wait for the Outcome of 2024 Election
The crypto community will keenly watch how the 2024 presidential election in the United States may impact the cryptocurrency industry. While former President Donald Trump has termed himself as the “crypto president”, and has been decidedly more bullish on the sector, Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a distinctly more measured approach since her declaration of candidacy.
VanEck Analysis: Harris vs. Trump
Assuming a Harris Presidency, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, a digital asset investment analyst take an interesting look at how both a Harris and Trump administration could positively impact Bitcoin-but with somewhat disparate views on the wider digital asset market.
VanEck illustrates a scenario in which a President Harris would likely continue the tight regulatory regime of SEC Chair Gary Gensler on digital assets. In this respect, such an alignment with the more regulatory-focused elements within the Democratic party-in particular, Senator Elizabeth Warren-could impede greater institutional adoption and, by extension, innovation within the sector.
Ironically, however, a Harris presidency would be a good thing for Bitcoin: increased fiscal spending and stricter regulations might just compel investors to move to Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation, breathing wider appeal for the digital asset over others.
Trump Presidency: Deregulation and Crypto Growth
By contrast, VanEck believes that a Trump administration would be more amiable to the cryptocurrency market in general. With a more pro-business posture and deregulation, as well as less scrutiny, a Trump administration might offer a better environment for crypto entrepreneurs to foster growth and innovation in the industry.
Market Predictions: Diverging Views
Not everyone agrees with VanEck’s outlook. In a report, Bernstein suggests a rally in Bitcoin price-to as high as $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins. They see the cryptocurrency retreating back to $30,000 to $40,000 range under a Harris administration.
Long-term Outlook: Bitcoin’s Strength Regardless of Outcome
Whatever the diverging opinions, the wider macroeconomic background still seems to be a favorable setting for Bitcoin, independent of the election result. According to VanEck and other analysts, the prospect of higher fiscal deficits and, thus, national debt could weaken the dollar-a set of circumstances in which Bitcoin has traditionally acted as a store of value.
Conclusion: The Future of Bitcoin in Times of Political Turbulence
Already, going into the 2024 election, it looks like the crypto market is going to be a wild ride. On the other hand, with increased betting on Bitcoin as an economic hedge, the token may remain stable regardless of who comes out on top in the presidency.
