Is this the start of the next bull run?

In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman discusses the latest change to the BlackRock spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing, which adds Coinbase as a “surveillance-sharing partner.“ Some analysts have signaled that the filings by BlackRock, Fidelity and others are responsible for the recent Bitcoin (BTC) rally toward $31,000, but according to Pechman, they’re only partially correct because it doesn’t indicate the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will accept any of the ETF filings.

Pechman argues that in the case of a refusal by the SEC, a court decision may be needed. The SEC could be required to explain the rule for existing spot ETF markets, such as gold and oil, with the judge deciding if the same methodology has been applied to Bitcoin.

As for the recent Bitcoin rally, Pechman believes it was justified. Still, given the history of multiple consecutive spot Bitcoin ETF rejections, and complaints regarding wash trading and price-making on Tether-based exchanges, one should not give it a 60% probability of approval.

Consequently, Pechman believes that the $30,000 support price for Bitcoin remains at risk due to macroeconomic uncertainties, weak stock market performance and the harsh regulatory environment toward cryptocurrencies.

On to the show’s next topic, Pechman explains how crypto exchange Gemini’s Earn program has been severely impacted by Genesis Global Trading — a Digital Currency Group (DCG) subsidiary — and why the Winklevoss brothers knew what the risks were.

But, regardless of DCG CEO Barry Silbert’s actions, investors believe $25 billion in crypto is at risk. As Pechman highlights, DCG owns Grayscale, which manages the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust — a tradable investment fund worth $19 billion — and a similar instrument for Ether, holding $6 billion.

Listen to the full episode of The Market Report for Pechman’s opinion on the odds of a Grayscale fund liquidation and whether the bull market has arrived. The show runs exclusively on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.