Raoul Pal Predicts the Start of an Altcoin Supercycle in 2026
Raoul Pal, one of the most influential macro analysts and co-founder of Real Vision, believes the crypto market is entering a critical setup phase for what he calls an upcoming altcoin supercycle. According to Pal, the explosive stage of the next cycle is not happening yet because the macro environment is still in the early part of the liquidity curve.
Why There Is No Altseason Right Now
Many traders claim the altseason is dead, but Pal argues the opposite. Markets follow business cycles, not sentiment.
When the business cycle is weak, investors avoid risk. As the cycle accelerates and corporate profits expand, capital naturally flows further along the risk curve, eventually reaching altcoins.
Pal also highlights political and fiscal dynamics:
• Donald Trump and Scott Bessent are preparing the market for a significant liquidity injection
• Even Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on service tips could inject up to $1.5 trillion of fresh liquidity into the banking system
This environment lays the foundation for a delayed but powerful risk-on phase.
Bitcoin as a Macro Asset
Bitcoin’s correlation to global liquidity is approximately 90 percent, placing it among the most sensitive macro assets in the world.
Pal notes that:
• NASDAQ is even more tightly correlated with money printing
• Bitcoin is not an uncorrelated asset, but one of the most liquidity-responsive
• The current BTC price already reflects expectations of a recession that is increasingly unlikely
As liquidity expands, Bitcoin historically leads the cycle before capital rotates into altcoins.
The Larger Macro Game
The engine behind long-term market trends is continuous currency debasement driven by the structural need to expand liquidity.
Pal explains:
• Around 8 percent annual debasement is the minimum threshold for maintaining purchasing power
• Governments expand the money supply to service debt; this is systemic, not temporary
• Asset markets respond by repricing higher over time
Crypto, being the most liquidity-sensitive asset class, reacts strongly to these shifts.
Liquidity and the Business Cycle
Since 2008, the business cycle has become increasingly predictable due to the structure of global debt maturities.
• The typical cycle expanded from 4 years to 5–5.5 years after debt extensions in 2022
• The largest liquidity impulse is positioned for 2026
According to Pal, this timing aligns with the next major surge in crypto markets.
The Key Takeaway
The current weakness in crypto is not structural but a temporary divergence between price and underlying macro liquidity.
Pal summarizes the setup:
• Crypto is the most liquidity-sensitive asset class in global markets
• The main phase of the cycle has not begun
• The explosive stage, the so-called banana zone, lies ahead
• Patience is the primary asset for investors who understand macro cycles
Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager and widely respected macro thinker, continues to emphasize that liquidity cycles, not sentiment, drive the long-term trajectory of crypto markets.
Banana zones and the road ahead
In Pal’s framework, the most explosive phase of each crypto cycle is what he calls the “banana zone” – a steep, almost vertical part of the chart where liquidity, narrative and positioning all align. He argues that crypto has not even entered this phase yet. The current consolidation is a waiting room for the real move, not the end of the story. As global liquidity turns higher into 2026, he expects Bitcoin to break out first, followed by an aggressive rotation into altcoins as investors chase higher beta across the risk curve.
Who is Raoul Pal?
Raoul Pal is one of the most widely followed global macro analysts, a former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and the co-founder of Real Vision. He has built his reputation on connecting liquidity cycles, debt dynamics and asset pricing across equities, bonds, FX and crypto. Pal is also the author of the “banana zone” concept on the crypto market – the idea that phases of parabolic growth are tightly linked to liquidity cycles rather than random speculation. For investors who think in long horizons, his message is simple: understanding macro and being patient are just as important as picking the right coins.
BTCUSA Comment
From a broader market-outlook perspective, the setup Pal describes aligns with the structural rhythm we’ve seen since 2008: liquidity dries up, assets reset, and the next wave of expansion reprices risk dramatically higher. If the projected 2026 liquidity impulse materializes, the crypto market may be entering one of the most asymmetric opportunity windows in its history. For long-term participants, the challenge is less about timing the bottom and more about staying positioned before the liquidity tide turns.
