Short-term Dips Before Positive Growth

Despite an overall depressed market and now the specter of another war as tensions escalate in the Middle East, crypto experts and executives remain confident for the future. 

Many have been sharing their thoughts recently, and the Bitcoin halving narrative seems to be strengthening. There are various counters, but the general consensus is that this will occur in late April or early May 2024. 

On Oct. 8, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards said that 44% of all of Bitcoin’s returns have occurred in the 12 months after each halving. “In other words, all of Bitcoin’s cycle returns can be expected to occur soon,” he added. 

Are you ready for 2024?

44% of all of Bitcoin’s returns have occurred in the 12 months after each Halving.

Including the extra 6 months in 2017 (red here) captures 150% of Bitcoin’s all time returns!

In other words, all of Bitcoin’s cycle returns can be expected to occur soon. pic.twitter.com/50oVdBuiUx

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 8, 2023

Market Sentiment Slowly Improving

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao added to the sentiment after announcing that the exchange has put a halving countdown. He added his experience based on the past three halvings: 

“The day after the halving, the Bitcoin price won’t double overnight. And people will be asking why it didn’t. The year after the halving, Bitcoin price hits multiple ATH. And people ask why. People have short memories.”

On-chain analytics provider Santiment observed large exchange outflows over the weekend as the asset made another attempt at $28K. 

Meanwhile, technical analyst “CryptoCon” observed Bitcoin “chop zones,” noting that things have moved out of the red bear market zone in preparation for another potential leg higher. 

“Unless you have a black swan, the blue lights end the red times for good until the next bear market,” he said. However, some expressed concern over the escalating conflict in Israel and its potential impact on markets. 

The #Bitcoin green lights are turning on everywhere we look, and in this case the blue lights.

Once the red Bear Market downtrend block is completed on the chop zone, Bitcoin makes one final small return to red.

Unless you have a black swan, the blue lights end the… pic.twitter.com/nGENb4ZuZC

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) October 8, 2023

Not So Fast …

While the long-term (late 2024 and into 2025) outlook is overwhelmingly positive, the same cannot be said for the short-term, which is the rest of this year.

Trader “CrediBULL Crypto” posted an update to his technical analysis on Oct. 9. He noted a lot of resistance at higher levels before stating: 

“The direction we are headed here is clear imo, the real question is how low we will go.”

If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could revisit the $26,500 area again before attempting another push higher. 

No change to my idea shared below. Targeting 27.1k at minimum with a test of the mid-range at 26.7k seeming highly likely as well.

Zooming out for some additional context- you can see that we have tons of liquidity built up below us after taking liq above with plenty of… https://t.co/62pvVl0PFu pic.twitter.com/2ldlhWT4Di

— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) October 9, 2023

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $27,943, having failed to break above $28,100 over the weekend.