VanEck: Bitcoin’s Mid-October Pullback Marks a Liquidity-Driven Mid-Cycle Reset

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Bitcoin price chart illustrating VanEck’s October 2025 mid-cycle correction analysis and global liquidity trends.
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Bitcoin’s Mid-October Correction: Not the Start of a Bear Market

According to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck (October 2025), Bitcoin’s recent pullback — nearly 18% from its early-month highs above $125,000 — represents a liquidity-driven mid-cycle correction, not the beginning of a prolonged downturn. Analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel emphasize that leverage has normalized and that macro fundamentals remain supportive of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Global Liquidity Still Drives Bitcoin’s Price Cycles

VanEck’s data shows that global M2 growth continues to explain over 50% of Bitcoin’s price variance, reaffirming its role as an “anti-money printing” asset. The firm notes that Asian trading hours have led price discovery for the past year, a sign that tightening regional liquidity — especially from China and India — is influencing short-term volatility.

Leverage Flush Presents Buying Opportunities

Futures open interest peaked at $52 billion before cascading liquidations triggered October’s correction. With leverage now sitting near its 61st percentile, VanEck considers current price levels “an attractive re-entry point.” Institutional participation on regulated exchanges like CME has also increased, suggesting a maturing and more balanced derivatives market.

Bitcoin Miners Pivot Toward AI Infrastructure

Over the past year, Bitcoin miners’ debt surged from $2.1B to $12.7B as they invest heavily in new ASICs and diversify into AI-powered data centers. VanEck argues that this shift reduces miners’ dependence on volatile Bitcoin revenues, helping them secure predictable cash flows and lowering their cost of capital. The growing synergy between AI computation and Bitcoin mining is viewed as a net positive for network resilience.

On-Chain Metrics Reflect a Maturing Ecosystem

Key metrics — including daily active addresses, transfer volume, and miner revenues — all remain strong. Correlations between blockchain revenues and token prices underscore the sector’s evolution from speculation to utility. While Bitcoin’s price remains largely driven by macro factors, its expanding integration into treasury holdings and investment portfolios signals its transition into a core digital store of value.

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VanEck’s Investor Takeaway

VanEck maintains exposure to Bitcoin within its model portfolios, arguing that allocating less than 2% to digital assets is effectively a short position on the sector. With normalized leverage, record mining activity, and growing institutional participation, the firm’s analysts see the recent selloff as part of a healthy market rotation within a long-term bull cycle.

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